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Can Pending Home Sales Predict Price Changes?
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
The housing industry has long expected
that pending home sales in a given month will fairly accurately forecast the actual
sales transactions that follow one or two months later. But Bin He - principal
economist with the CoreLogic Decision Analytics & Research Team (DART), thinks we may be overlooking some
other predictive abilities of the pending sales data.
A sales becomes pending when an offer
to purchase is accepted and a contract is signed. The most common data on pending sales is a
monthly report published by the National Association of Realtors® but He used
data from CoreLogic Listing Trends
and his analysis indicates that pending home sales might also offer a preview
into the future of home prices, at least those measured by CoreLogic's HPI. His results appear in the CoreLogic Insights blog.
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