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Can Pending Home Sales Predict Price Changes?

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

The housing industry has long expected that pending home sales in a given month will fairly accurately forecast the actual sales transactions that follow one or two months later.  But Bin He - principal economist with the CoreLogic Decision Analytics & Research Team (DART), thinks we may be overlooking some other predictive abilities of the pending sales data.

A sales becomes pending when an offer to purchase is accepted and a contract is signed.  The most common data on pending sales is a monthly report published by the National Association of Realtors® but He used data from CoreLogic Listing Trends and his analysis indicates that pending home sales might also offer a preview into the future of home prices, at least those measured by CoreLogic's HPI.  His results appear in the CoreLogic Insights blog.


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