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Refi Apps Technically Higher, But Bouncing Along The Gutter Overall

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

The take-away from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) current press release on mortgage volume was its summary of performance over the last two weeks.  MBA reported a net drop in its seasonally adjusted Purchase Index of 1.4 percent from the week ended June 26 while its Refinance Index increased 6.5 percent.

That aside is necessary because the week ended July 10 followed a week shortened by a holiday. The holiday and consumer reaction to it often make data for both that week and the week following it an exercise in confusion with both big variations between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data within the short week and atypical swings in component indices from one week to the next.  For example, during the Independence Day week of July 3 there was a more than 10 percentage point gulf between MBA's Market Composite Index on a seasonally adjusted basis (+4.6 percent) and when unadjusted (-6 percent).  There was then a rebound creating a comparable difference in the most recent data.


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